Rain is Likely on Kentucky Derby Day (It’s Rained on 46% of Them)

Update: The National Weather Service on Saturday morning says showers are still likely on Kentucky Derby day—mostly after 2 p.m. There’s a 60-percent chance of showers during the day and an 80-percent chance of showers Saturday evening. The high temperature is expected to be near 64 degrees.

Earlier: Heading to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday? Be prepared to be rained on.

Louisville has a 90 percent chance of rain showers on Saturday—part of a system that may drop as much as two inches of precipitation on the city through the weekend, the National Weather Service said.

“Go ahead and plan on it,” said Ryan Sharp, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Louisville. “There’s a chance it could hold off until right at Derby time.”

But, as of Friday afternoon, some rain before the race appears quite possible, he said.

The storms aren’t expected to be severe, Sharp said.

And there’s a 10 percent chance of rain (and maybe a not-severe thunderstorm) today—Oaks Day, and a slightly better chance for Friday night.

Now, Kentucky Derby week may be high-stress for meteorologists, but the team at the National Weather Service in Louisville is having fun with it. Well,  meteorologist fun.

They’ve compiled weather stats for every Kentucky Derby and Oaks. And noted this (not surprising) fact: The odds are good that it’ll rain on those days.

Out of the 138 Derby Days, 63 (46%) experienced rain at some point during the day.

Now, the rain hasn’t always fallen when people were at the track—the percentage means it’s rained at some point on those days, the National Weather Service notes. 

Oaks day has had even more rain. Last years Oaks had .12 inches of rain, but the infield was cleared out because of the threat of severe weather. (You may recall.)

Out of the 138 Oaks Days, 77 (56%) experienced rain at some point during the day.

Another note: The high temperature on Saturday is expected to be near 59 degrees. 

Joseph Lord

Joseph Lord is the online managing editor for WFPL.

@joseph_Lord

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