Update 11:45 p.m. Thursday: The severe thunderstorm warning for Jefferson County and the surround area has expired, but a wind advisory and a tornado watch remain in effect until 2 a.m.
Update 11:20 p.m. Thursday: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 11:45 p.m. for Jefferson County and surround areas, the National Weather Service said. The main threat is 60 mile per hour wind gusts.
Update: 6:50 p.m. Thursday: A tornado watch is in effect for Louisville and surrounding areas until 2 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service said.
Update 7 a.m. Thursday: A wind advisory has been issued for Louisville and surrounding areas effective from 4 p.m. today until 1 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service said. Gusts could reach 40 miles per hour. The other concerns about this evening’s expected storms, such as downpours and possibly a spin-up tornado, remain, too.
The weather service forecast says the chance of precipitation tonight is 100 percent.
Earlier: The threat of significant storms hitting the Louisville area on Thursday at the precise moment trick-or-treaters are taking to the streets has prompted some communities to change (or at least advise a change) to when Halloween festivities are to happen.
On Thursday afternoon, Louisville has a 70-percent chance of precipitation in the form of showers or storms, the National Weather Service forecast on Wednesday afternoon. The risk increases to 90-percent for storms or showers in the evening. (The high temperature is forecast to be in the high 60s and the low is forecast for the mid-50s.)
There’s even a chance for “spin up” tornandoes.
“Regardless of whether or not these storms get to be severe or even tornadic, it’s not going to be a very nice night to be out trick-or-treating,” said Ron Steve, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Louisville. “
“It’s very likely going to rain and at some point it’s going to rain hard.”
Winds could also be in the 30 miles per hour range, Steve said.
And there’s the timing:
“It’s going to be anytime in the afternoon and the evening. The best chance for nastiest weather is going to be anytime between, say, 5 and 10 o’clock here in the Metro,” Steve said.
So there’s all that. What does it mean for trick-or-treating?
First off, Louisville doesn’t schedule Halloween. Mayor Greg Fischer said so on Twitter on Tuesday:
Note: City govt does not schedule trick or treating; we encourage parents/children to be cautious if there are severe storms as predicted— Mayor Greg Fischer (@louisvillemayor) October 29, 2013
But other local governments are trying to move trick-or-treating—Indiana’s Clarksville and Floyd County are pushing for tonight and Middletown and LaGrange are going with Friday, according to WAVE3. WAVE3 has a pretty comprehensive list of Halloween date changes here.
Whether parents or teachers will abide by those times (or try to delay trick-or-treating where no call is being made) is an open question. In fact, if you want, let me know what happens in your neighborhood.
The most rain that’s ever fallen on Louisville (in recorded history) on Halloween is 1.68 inches in 1941. Steve said Thursday’s rainfall could top the 1941 Halloween record, but at this point i’s only a possibility.
But this October has already been the wettest Louisville’s had. As of Wednesday morning, 9.32 inches of rain had fallen this month, topping the 8.86-inch recor-dsetter in 2007. Steve noted that this year’s record rainfall was attributed to just a couple of really big storms.
(Image via Shutterstock)