© 2024 Louisville Public Media

Public Files:
89.3 WFPL · 90.5 WUOL-FM · 91.9 WFPK

For assistance accessing our public files, please contact info@lpm.org or call 502-814-6500
89.3 WFPL News | 90.5 WUOL Classical 91.9 WFPK Music | KyCIR Investigations
Play Live Radio
Next Up:
0:00
0:00
0:00 0:00
Available On Air Stations
Stream: News Music Classical

5 Laws Of Political Gravity In Midterms. Do They Still Apply In The Age Of Trump?

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

The 2018 election cycle has officially begun, with the first primaries being held in Texas on Tuesday.

In every campaign cycle, analysts look at the fundamentals — the political laws of gravity that, in the past, have influenced elections. In 2016, Donald Trump seemed to defy a lot of these laws, and Republicans are hoping they can do the same this year to prevent the hit the party in power usually takes at this point in a president's first midterm.

Here are five laws of political gravity to watch as the 2018 campaign plays out:

1. When a president's approval rating is below 50 percent, his party doesn't fare well at all

Historically, parties that hold the White House lose seats in midterms — even more when they also have complete control of Congress, and even more when the president's approval rating is under 50 percent.

Jonese Franklin