Politics

The results from Tuesday’s four primary and caucus states are in: three wins for Trump, one for each Clinton and Cruz, and one surprising, narrow victory for Sanders.

Bernie Sanders’ tight win over Hillary Clinton in Michigan is the biggest news out of Tuesday night’s presidential nomination races. Though Clinton had led consistently in recent polls, Sanders won by less than two percentage points, with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton won easily in Mississippi earlier in the evening. On the Republican side, Donald Trump won in Hawaii, Michigan, and Mississippi, and Ted Cruz won Idaho.

Here’s what you need to know thus far:

Hawaii:

  • Donald Trump has won the Hawaii Republican caucus, the AP projects.
  • Trump had 42.8 percent of the vote with nearly 87 percent of precincts reporting. That’s well ahead of second-place Cruz, at 32.2 percent. Marco Rubio came in a distant third.

Idaho

  • Ted Cruz has won the Idaho Republican primary, the AP projects.
  • The Texas senator won handily in the deep red state. With 51 percent of precincts reporting, Cruz (with nearly 43 percent of the vote) led second-place Donald Trump by nearly 15 points.

Michigan

  • Bernie Sanders has won the Michigan Democratic primary, the AP projects.
  • Donald Trump has won the Michigan Republican primary, the AP projects.
  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich also posted a strong showing and is in a close race for second with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, according to results reported by CNN.
  • Trump was broadly popular across lots of groups, according to exit polls. Kasich, meanwhile, performed particularly well among voters with postgraduate education, moderates, and people who said they were choosing a candidate because they disliked the others.
  • Exit polls in that state show some expected patterns: Clinton did better among older voters, while Sanders far and away won younger ones. Clinton won black voters over Sanders 65-30. However, that’s not nearly as strong as her performance among black voters in some southern states.

Mississippi

  • Donald Trump has won the Republican primary in Mississippi, the AP projects.
  • Hillary Clinton has won that state’s Democratic primary, the AP projects.
  • One big factor in Clinton’s win: black voters made up more than 6 in 10 Mississippi voters, according to early exit polls. Clinton won 89 percent of those voters, to Sanders’ 11.
  • On the Republican side, exit polls suggest it was largely a two-person race, between Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
  • Trump was strong among a broad swath of demographic groups, but Cruz showed particular strength among voters who were very conservative, want a candidate who shares their values, and want an experienced candidate.

The Big Questions Tonight Answered

Can Sanders really hold his own in Michigan?

Yes.

Sanders’ narrow win over Clinton is the biggest story of the night. Recent polls had shown Sanders behind Clinton by double digits.

It may be a sign of at least one of Clinton’s vulnerabilities. Sanders had blasted Clinton on trade in Michigan, and his win may prove that that strategy was successful. He had targeted Clinton’s past support for trade policies like NAFTA and the Obama Administration’s Trans Pacific Partnership, saying that trade pacts kill the kinds of manufacturing jobs that many Michiganders have.

In exit polls, the majority of Michigan voters (58 percent) said they think trade takes away U.S. jobs, and Sanders was strong among those voters, with 56 percent of their vote. With another big-delegate Rust Belt state (Ohio) coming up next week, expect to see the Sanders camp amplify the trade message.

The question is what this does for Sanders. With Mississippi and Michigan taken together, Clinton will win more delegates tonight.

Can Trump rack up more decisive wins?

Yes…but not everywhere.

Prior to Tuesday night, Trump had received more than 40 percent support in 5 out of 20 contests, as NPR’s Domenico Montanaro reported this week. Tonight, he notched another of those big wins in Mississippi, where he had 47 percent of the vote (with 91 percent of precincts reporting).

In that state, it was largely a two-person race between Trump and Cruz. But in Michigan, where Kasich was competitive, Trump came in at around 36 percent. One thing to watch going ahead is — as other GOP candidates drop out — how many of their voters flock to Trump vs. another not-Trump candidate.

What’s Rubio’s situation?

Not good.

Marco Rubio didn’t even score double digits in Mississippi or Michigan, and in Hawaii and Idaho, he posted third place finishes. Altogether, he won zero delegates.

The Florida Republican senator has only won one state thus far, with a Super Tuesday win in Minnesota. The question now is what he does next. In a Tuesday interview with Hugh Hewitt, Rubio said that he’d stay in the race until the March 15 contest in Florida.

Since it’s a winner-take-all state, Florida is a GOP delegate goldmine. And it’s Rubio’s home state, so he believes he can still rally some support there. The problem for Rubio is that recent polls have him double-digits behind Trump in Florida. Of course, polls have been known to be wrong (see: tonight’s Democratic race in Michigan). But if Rubio can’t pull out a win in Florida, it could be a crippling blow to his campaign.


What Comes Next

The Democrats move straight from a hard-fought primary to a debate — Clinton and Sanders will debate in Miami on Wednesday night. Their last debate, in Flint, featured some of their testiest exchanges to date, so the question is whether the Miami event will be as fiery.

And for politics diehards who just can’t get enough debating, Republicans will meet in their own Miami debate on Thursday. Given that it’s a home turf debate for Rubio just days before that state’s crucial primary, he will be the candidate to watch. The question here may be how he tries to differentiate himself.

Then on Tuesday, March 15, five states will hold both Democratic and Republican contests. Given that all five have considerable delegate prizes — and that three of those on the GOP side are winner-take-all — this will be another Super Tuesday of sorts, and one that could make the lay of the land much clearer in both races.


The Delegate Situation

Trump’s three wins further distanced him from his competition in the delegate race. Heading into Tuesday night, Trump had 384 delegates, holding an 84-delegate lead over second-place Cruz. At publication time early Wednesday morning, Trump had 446 delegates, a lead of 99 over Cruz. A Republican candidate needs 1,237 delegates to win the nomination.

Meanwhile, while Sanders’ win is the big news on the Democrat side, Clinton has gained more total delegates from Michigan and Mississippi than he did. Going into Tuesday night, Clinton had won 673 pledged delegates, a 196-delegate lead over Sanders. At publication time, she had 760 pledged delegates, a 214-delegate lead over Sanders’ 546.

Currently, Clinton has 1,221 total delegates, counting the unpledged superdelegates that factor into the Democratic race. Sanders has 571. A Democratic candidate needs 2,383 total delegates to win the nomination.

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